by Jason Martinez
Player A, who is a first baseman, hit .298 with 31 HR, 101 RBI, 33 2B, 93 BB, and 114 K as a 28 year-old in 2010. Before the following season, he was traded to a team who could afford the eventual 7 year, $154M contract extension he signed before his 29th birthday.
Player B, who is a 28 year-old third baseman playing in the same home stadium as Player A did, is hitting .287 with 26 HR, 98 RBI, 25 2B, 69 BB, 137 K, and 14 SB with 23 games left in the season. He can become a free agent after the 2014 season. Despite a more consistent track record of these types of numbers from Player A, wouldn't player B still be in line for a similar deal at this rate?
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| Headley is going to be a very rich man Picture courtesy of US Presswire |
There is no one playing better baseball right now than Player B, who is Padres third baseman Chase Headley, one of the few core players the team hasn't signed to a long-term extension during the past year (Cameron Maybin, Cory Luebke, Carlos Quentin, and Huston Street have each signed extensions). In fact, he is the best player on one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. If not for the Padres' horrid start, which has put them too far out to even think of a playoff spot, Headley would be a serious MVP candidate. Player A is former Padres star Adrian Gonzalez, who is now playing for the division rival Dodgers.
What does this all mean for the Padres, who despite having new ownership committed to raising the payroll, are likely can't afford a player who makes $15M-plus per season? Up until a few months ago, Headley was considered a good all-around third baseman who was never going to be a star. Five years and $45 million might have been enough to keep the former 2nd Round pick in San Diego through his prime. Now, all you have to do is compare Headley's numbers to Gonzalez's to know that deal ain't happening.
On the bright side, the Padres can still keep their emerging star third baseman at a fairly reasonable salary -- he's eligible for arbitration after the next two seasons -- and they have a good backup plan in place with prospect Jedd Gyorko. It's still worth asking: how much would it cost the Padres to extend Headley before next season? Keep in mind that they'd be buying out his final two arbitration years and would likely have to offer at least five years, which would keep him through his 33rd birthday.
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The simple answer is No.
Gonzalez's career numbers when he signed his extension were .293/.375/.514 and he had 5.108 years of service time (he was 7 months away from FA). Not to mention he had averaged 34 homeruns a year over his previous 4 seasons).
Chase on the other hand has a .273/.349/.413 career line and is having what may be a career year (he's also under team control for an additional season).
So even with the breakout year Chase's career OPS is 125 points lower than Adrian's. Chase gets a bump for playing the more premium position but he also gets a large knock for his H/R splits - he's hit .238/.325/.356 at Petco (where as Gonzalez had hit .267/.367/.442 at Petco) albeit Headley is doing much better in that area this year.
Zimmerman and Beltre's 16 mil per year signings will be more likely targets if SD were to sign Chase to an extension this winter (not the 21.5 mil per year Gonzo was awarded).
A hypothetical 7 year contract that has approximate payouts of 8M, 10M, 12M, 14M, 16M, 18M, 20M for a total value of 98 million seems as though it would be a much closer neighborhood. Granted the closer he gets to FA the higher the overall contract will go.
If I were SD I'd offer him to PHI in December for some front line mlb ready/near mlb ready starting pitching and let Gyorko take over at 3rd. The fanbase probably won't like it - but if it gets them closer to the playoffs then they should pull the trigger.
Nice response to this article. It's apples and oranges comparing Headley and A-gonz' respective career dossiers. Headley hasn't proven he's worthy of anywhere near a 9-figure contract.
I will however respectfully disagree with the responder that the Pads should consider trading Headley for anything - even starting pitching. Pitching is a blessing that we seem to be showered with - pretty sure we have full control over at least 7 of our most effective starters from this year including Volquez, Richard and Stauffer through arbitration. Marquis and - I think Stults - are the only free agents. And Stults should stay at least another year if he wants to pad his stats in SD. Luebke, Kelly, Werner and Cashner will certainly be in the mix for spots next year. The reason the Pads struggled early was not really due to the loss of several starters, but mostly the absense of Carlos Quentin for the first 49 games. The absense of that .500 slugging pct and .880 OPS contributed mightily to their horrific 17-32 start. Since then they are 49-42. That's huge! I believe they are a playoff team with Quentin and Headley in the lineup. So the Pads need to keep Headley if at all possible. They have enough depth everywhere else.
Hey Jason, don't forget Chris "the Dorfman" Denorfia as one of the "core" Padre resigns! Sadly I'm actually being serious...
Great piece!
Headley has been a revelation this season. While I think he should be the guy they spend money on among the players on the team (considering that everyone else re-signed, outside of Quentin, was done cost effectively), it probably makes sense to shop him this winter. No player has seen his stock rise this much in a few months.
Why would the Pads shop Headley if they can still offer him arbitration for two more years? At least let's make a run next year and if that doesn't work, trade him next year with another year of arbitration left. Big value there for any team in need of a 3B down the stretch and for the long run.
His value will never be higher than this offseason. Two years left of team control and coming off of monster season. Shopping him would be smart in order to gauge his value. Don't think they'd trade him unless they got an amazing return that included top prospects and major league ready talent in return. You never know but I'd guess he stays.
I get what you're saying Jason, especially after the Latos deal it's hard to argue that we shouldn't at least shop Headley. But I think no matter what we get in return it's going to set us back at least another year. We are loaded with enough great young talent to compete now so I think it's more important to go for that first ring. Resigning Quentin and Street sent a message that management is committed to winning now. I'd hope they'd agree that we don't have a chance to make the playoffs next year without Headley, so what would be the point of resigning those guys if they're going to trade of the cornerstone of the offense? Sorry to beat a dead horse here, but how much more solid mlb-ready talent do we need now that we have Grandal, Alonso, Amarista, Kelly, Werner, Layne, Brach, Boxberger, Bass, Luebke (maybe back late next year), Erlin and Forsythe. We have a ton of depth everywhere at the ML and AAA level, so this team needs Headley to solidify the batting order.
Why would it set you back? IMHO it can aid them next year, Gyorko is ready - it's time to see what he can do. It all depends on what they get in return.
If PHI offers you a package of say Cloyd, May, and Pettibone - you must think long and hard about that.
Gyorko?? Come on now....we're not winning anything with Gyorko at 3rd. Unless he's on par with Machado or Lawrie - he's not - we won't win with him as an everyday or even a platoon player. Remember when Rizzo was can't miss?? It's taken him a full year to find his stroke.
Tom, I think you make a good point about the depth they've built up, especially in the upper minors. They're not gonna trade Headley to re-stock their minor league system with more mid-level guys and most teams aren't willing to trade guys who are close to big league ready with star potential. Getting Grandal was the key to the Latos deal. A frontline starting catcher who was ready for the big leagues made the deal worth it. Not sure if there's a deal that would make the Padres better in 2013. I just think they're gonna see if someone will give up a whole lot for him but don't think it will happen this offseason.
Anonymous, the Phillies will likely be one of many teams interested in Headley but I'm not sure they have enough to get it done. The Padres already have a bunch of guys just like Pettitbone (mid-rotation potential). All teams have a few Cloyds (back of the rotation starter types). May has the highest ceiling but he is still a long way from helping. That won't get it done for a 3B who could be considered one of top 3B in the game after this season. And he has 2 years left of team control.
Really tough to build a contender without a top tier 3b - anyone remember Nettles and Caminiti? I'm not putting Headley in their category, but he's developing into a great one. Let's get a ring in 2013! And if we can go 13-2 in our next 15 games, maybe 2012!
Jason, I agree that Grandal was the key to that deal, but we backed up the truck - Volquez, Alonso and Boxberger are all solid contributors for much less $$$ than what we would have paid Latos. Reds are obviously happy with the deal as well since they had all the pieces especially at 1B.
MLBTR is projecting an arb figure of just over 8 mil for Headley this offseason.
San Diego third baseman Chase Headley had the largest request and the biggest spread amongst arb filers, asking for $10.3 million while the Padres offered $7,075,000.
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