How Much Has Run Differential Mattered in the Wild Card Era?

posted 8/2/12  9:48 PM PST
by Joe Giglio

Over the years, Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation model has become a major talking point for SABR member, baseball analysts, and fans. As the 2012 season hits the dog days of August, between 17 and 20 teams still have legitimate claims to a postseason shot. While no metric or stat is perfect, looking at run differential can reveal a major part of what has happened and what might occur over the final two months of this season.

The following is a look at the run differential of every postseason team in the Wild Card era. Only winners of the one-game playoffs were included for purposes of this study. Over the 17 years of WC era play -- it would be 18 if not for the ‘94 strike -- there have been 136 playoff teams.

2011: NYY (+210), TB (+93), DET (+76), TEX (+178), PHI (+184), MIL (+83), STL (+70), ARI (+69)
2010: TB (+153), NYY (+166), MIN (+110), TEX (+100), PHI (+132), ATL (+109), CIN (+105), SF (+114)
2009: NYY (+162), BOS (+136), MIN (+52), LAA (+122), PHI (+122), STL (+90), LAD (+169), COL (+89)
2008: TB (+103), BOS (+151), CHI-AL (+82), LAA (+68), PHI (+119), CHI-NL (+184), MIL (+61), LAD (+52)
2007: BOS (+210), NYY (+191), CLE (+115), LAA (+91), PHI (+71), CHI-NL (+62), ARI (-20), COL (+102)
2006: NYY (+163), MIN (+118), DET (+147), OAK (+44), NYM (+103), STL (+19), SD (+52), LAD (+69)
2005: NYY (+100), BOS (+102), CHI-AL (+96), LAA (+118), ATL (+95), STL (+171), HOU (+84), SD (-42)
2004: NYY (+89), BOS (+180), MIN (+64), LAA (+102), ATL (+135), STL (+196), HOU (+105), LAD (+77)
2003: NYY (+161), BOS (+153), MIN (+43), OAK (+125), ATL (+167), FLA (+59), CHI-NL (+42), SF (+117)
2002: NYY (+200), MIN (+56), OAK (+146), LAA (+207), ATL (+143), STL (+139), ARI (+145), SF (+167)
2001: NYY (+94), CLE (+72), SEA (+300), OAK (+239), ATL (+84), HOU (+78), STL (+130), ARI (+141)
2000: NYY (+57), CHI-AL (+139), OAK (+134), SEA (+127), ATL (+96), NYM (+69), STL (+116), SF (+178)
1999: NYY (+169), BOS (+118), CLE (+149), TEX (+86), ATL (+179), NYM (+142), HOU (+148), ARI (+232)
1998: NYY (+309!), BOS (+147), CLE (+71), TEX (+69), ATL (+245), HOU (+254), CHI-NL (+39), SD (+114)
1997: BAL (+131), NYY (+203), CLE (+53), SEA (+92), ATL (+210), FLA (+71), HOU (+117), SF (-9)
1996: NYY (+84), BAL (+46), CLE (+183), TEX (+129), ATL (+125), STL (+53), SD (+189), LAD (+51)
1995: BOS (+93), NYY (+61), CLE (+223), SEA (+88), ATL (+105), CIN (+124), LAD (+25), COL (+2)

How much does run differential matter? Only three ('97 SF, '05 SD, '07 ARI) made it with a negative run differential. In addition, only nine made it to October without a run differential of better than +50. While this may seem rudimentary -- the more runs scored compared to an opponent, the better a team should be -- it can be discounted by the fan bases of teams in contention.

Here’s a look at the three outliers of the past generation:

1997 San Francisco Giants: Final record: 90-72; Pythagorean W-L: 80-82; Run Diff: -9

Dusty Baker’s team grabbed first place by virtue of a 17-7 April and held on for dear life through May, June, and July. Despite playing “better” baseball in the second half (+9 RD), they had a decidedly better record in the first half (51-36). Their overall record was clearly influenced by an 11-3 record in extra inning games. Their offense -- led by Barry Bonds’ 1.031 OPS -- was above league average, but pitching below the league mark.

2005 San Diego Padres: Final record: 82-80; Pythagorean W-L: 77-85; Run Diff: -42

Led by Jake Peavy, Brian Giles, and dominant relief work by Scott Linebrink, this might represent the worst postseason team in this history of baseball. The group garnered the following distinctions: An eight-game losing streak, shutout 12 times, and 20 runs allowed in a single contest. They registered a losing record during three of six calendar months. If not for a 22-6 May, this squad would be lost to history.

2007 Arizona Diamondbacks: Final record: 90-72; Pythagorean W-L: 79-83; Run Diff: -20

The upstart Diamondbacks completed a 14-game improvement from 2006, despite a run differential drop of five runs. Predictably, their trajectory dropped back to 82-80 in 2008. What looked like a drop off was just baseball correcting itself. So, how did they find a way to win a round -- they represent the only outlier to actually win a playoff game -- and get within four wins of the World Series? A healthy, dominant Brandon Webb and career years from Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson led the charge. Aside from that, two things stand out: Luck and consistency. We’ll call it consistent luck. Their .615 winning percentage in one run games lends itself to good fortune. More impressive? Zero losing months. The path to 18-games over .500 was forged by consistently solid records, only one .500 month, and few spectacular runs.

As we extrapolate the data to 2012, a few themes and trends emerge. In the AL, trust what you’ve seen from the White Sox (+61), but not from the Orioles (-60). Detroit is still a heavy favorite, but their number (+9) is worrisome. They aren’t the same team from a year ago. In the NL, Arizona (+44) is a greater threat than some believe, especially tracking down two mediocre groups in San Fran (+4) and Los Angeles (+7). Keep an eye on the champs, as well. Despite being on the outside of the current October picture, St. Louis has the best mark (+102) in the entire National League.


Joe Giglio is a sports talk host at WNST in Baltimore, co-host of the Just a Bit Outside podcast on iTUNES, former intramural coordinator at DeSales University, husband, and baseball fanatic willing to argue Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame candidacy at a moment's notice. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports and check out his blog at joegiglio.blogspot.com.



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