Patience Formula

posted 5/25/12  1:12 PM PST
by Joe Giglio

Despite the supporters of WAR or RBIs or UZR, there are many ways to evaluate baseball players. While production comes in many shapes, sizes and formulas, each at-bat boils down to only two potential outcomes: Hitters either reach base or make an out. Obviously, defense plays a major role in this, thus Ultimate Zone Rating for fielders, xFIP for pitchers, and BABIP for hitters. Metrics are being designed by the day to determine what happened, why it occurred, and if it is sustainable over a long period of time.

Over the last few decades, fans have begun to understand the value of patience and getting on base as much as possible. Part of that formula includes taking walks and battling deep into the count to force starting pitchers out of the game as early as possible. In a league where young pitchers are protected, games are often won and lost by a relentless offense smashing poor middle relievers.

So, which players are the best at taking walks, battling deep into counts, but also avoiding high strikeout rates? It’s understandable that hitters who walk often will also strikeout because 2-2 and 3-2 counts are their norm.

The following stat is what I call the Patience Formula. Simply put, it takes walk rate and subtracts strikeout rate. For example, a hitter that walks 20% of plate appearances and strikes out only 15% would have a +5. The higher the number, the better the ratio of patience to contact.

Here’s how the 2012 leader board looks:

*All stats through May 24th

Mauer is among the most patient hitters in the game
Picture courtesy of US Presswire

Top 10
Joe Mauer: +5.9
Jose Reyes: +.4.9
Carlos Lee: +3.5
Asdrubal Cabrera: +2.3
Joey Votto: +2.1
Brian McCann: +2.1
Marco Scutaro: +1.2
David Wright: +0.8
Ben Zobrist: +0.6
Travis Hafner: +0.6

Bottom 10
Pedro Alvarez: -27.4
Clint Barmes: -25.2
Mike Napoli: -22.8
J.P. Arencibia: -22.6
Chris Johnson: -22.5
Dayan Viciedo: -22.1
Ike Davis: -21.8
Corey Hart: -21.5
Chris Davis: -21.5
Drew Stubbs: -20.2

This list turned out more revealing than originally thought. With the exception of the older, contact hitter Marco Scutaro in the Top 10 and Mike Napoli in the Bottom 10, there might not be a player swap a GM would make in order to build a team.

Striking out does not kill a player’s value – most excellent hitters have a negative ratio – but their walks counteract the K’s. While Adam Dunn leads the world in K% (over 35), he walks so much that his name doesn’t appear on the Bottom 10 list. Hitters that walk a ton have value, while those who strike out very often lessen the value of their game. It’s the hitters that can walk more often than they strikeout that are rare commodities. This stat highlights their abilities.


Joe Giglio is a sports talk host at WNST in Baltimore, co-host of the Just a Bit Outside podcast on iTUNES, former intramural coordinator at DeSales University, husband, and baseball fanatic willing to argue Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame candidacy at a moment's notice. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports and check out his blog at joegiglio.blogspot.com.




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