'MLBDepthCharts Magazine'includes this roster projection feature but includes additional info, such as player age, 2011 level and stats, 2012 salary and contract info in an easy-to-read, printer-friendly pdf file and excel spreadsheet.
*40-man roster total (39)
*Projected 2012 Payroll: est. $175,000,000 according to MLBDC Magazine
Disabled List Position Players •1B Ryan Howard*+UPDATE 4/3 - placed on 15-Day DL, retroactive to March 26th (ruptured Achilles' tendon) •2B Chase Utley* +UPDATE 4/3 - placed on 15-Day DL, retroactive to March 26th (knee pain) •IF/OF Michael Martinez** +UPDATE 4/3 - placed on 15-Day DL, retroactive to March 26th (fractured bone in foot) Pitchers RHP Jose Contreras+UPDATE 4/3 - placed on 15-Day DL, retroactive to March 26th (recovery from elbow surgery) RHP Justin De FratusBA#7BP#12 +UPDATE 4/3 - placed on 15-Day DL, retroactive to March 26th (elbow)
Minor League Free Agents Position Players C Dane Sardinha(2/8: signed w/BAL)
1B/3B Jeff Larish* (2/3: signed w/BAL)
IF Josh Barfield IF/OF Delwyn Young** (1/24: signed w/CWS)
OF Brent Clevlen OF Brandon Moss* (12/1: signed w/OAK)
Pitchers
RHP Brian Bass
RHP Eddie Bonine
LHP Ryan Edell (12/19: signed w/BAL) LHP Juan Perez(12/21: signed w/MIL)
LHP Les Walrond
Lost in Rule V Draft/Lost off Waivers/Released/Traded •1B/OF John Bowker* UPDATE 1/10- released •IF Carlos RiveroUPDATE 12/21- lost off waivers to Nationals •IF Wilson ValdezUPDATE 1/25 - traded to Reds •OF Ben FranciscoUPDATE 12/12 - traded to Blue Jays •RHP Lendy Castillo UPDATE 12/8 - taken by Cubs (Rule V) •RHP Scott MathiesonBP#9 UPDATE 11/29- released; will pursue opportunity to sign with Asian team •RHP Joel PineiroUPDATE 3/19- released •LHP Dontrelle WillisUPDATE 3/16- released
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
OFFSEASON PREVIEW posted 10/10/2011
The Phillies went in to the 2011 season as NL favorites and lived up to the hype with a major league best 102 wins. The season ended in disappointment, however, after they were defeated by the Cardinals in the NLDS. It's not all they lost. First baseman Ryan Howard ruptured his Achilles' tendon on the last play of the series, putting his 2012 season in jeopardy. With an early recovery time estimate of 6-12 months, there's a chance he's ready early in the season but there's also a chance the injury keeps him out for the entire season. Already headed for a busy offseason with Ryan Madson, Jimmy Rollins, and Raul Ibañez headed for free agency, the Phillies will also need to decide how to replace Howard's production.
Mayberry could play 1B until Howard returns.
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
John Mayberry, Jr. is coming off of a breakout season (.273 BA, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 17 2B, 8 SB in 104 games) and he also played 18 games at first base. Seems like he would be a good stop-gap solution until Howard returns.The injury also makes it more likely that Domonic Brown will be given another shot for a regular lineup spot. Mayberry would have pushed him for playing time had Howard been healthy. Now there could be room for both unless the Phillies acquire a first baseman or corner outfielder this winter.
Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, Hunter Pence, and Carlos Ruiz are penciled into the lineup again but the Phillies could go into 2012 with Rollins in a different uniform for the first time in 12 years. The soon-to-be 33 year-old is certain to get at least a three-year deal for big money and possibly four or five years. Defensive whiz Freddy Galvis made strides offensively with Double-A Reading (.727 OPS), although he'll probably never offer close to what Rollins can with the bat right now. The team might not feel comfortable with the 21 year-old just yet, especially with Howard's bat out of the lineup. But they also might not feel comfortable paying Rollins $12-15M past his 35th birthday.
Even with Roy Oswalt likely to depart as a free agent, the starting rotation shouldn't miss a beat. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, andCole Hamels are as good as it gets and Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) was one of the top rookie starters in the game this season. Joe Blanton should return to the rotation after he missed most of the season with an elbow injury. The team lacks depth after those five so they could consider signing another starter to a big league deal or their minor league free agent signings could end up playing a role at some point.
With Brad Lidge, Jose Contreras, and Madson all missing time with injuries, Antonio Bastardo stepped in and did a remarkable job as the primary setup man and part-time closer. It doesn't mean they feel comfortable handing him the closer's job in 2012. The 26 year-old struggled in September, allowing 9 earned runs in 7.1 innings to boost his ERA from 1.42 to 2.64. Re-signing closer Ryan Madsoncould be the team's priority but he'll likely be the top reliever on the free agent market after he posted a 2.37 ERA and saved 32 games in 34 chances. Contreras may not be ready for the start of the season after he underwent surgery to remove bone chips and repair a strained flexor in his elbow. Lidge is likely to have his $12.5 club option declined. There are plenty of good young arms in the mix, however, including Mike Stutes,Justin De Fratus, and Phillippe Aumont so they can probably avoid a complete overhaul.
•UPDATE 11/4 - Jim Thome has agreed to a one-year deal so there's a chance he begins the season as the starting first baseman and moves to the bench once Howard is ready. If the team acquires another first base or corner outfield option (there is reported interest in free agentMichael Cuddyer), then Thome could be primarily a bench player regardless of Howard's status.
•UPDATE 11/11 - Closer Jonathan Papelbon has reportedly agreed to a four-year deal, pending a physical.
•UPDATE 11/20 - Ty Wigginton was acquired from the Rockies for a PTBNL. He could see time at first base, third base, and left field.
•UPDATE 12/4 - Laynce Nix has reportedly agreed to a two-year deal. He'll likely serve as backup outfielder who starts occasionally in left field. •UPDATE 12/17 - Rollins has agreed to a three-year deal with a vesting option for 2015.
I selected Madson although I'm thinking he's more of the "first" priority rather than the "top" priority. They need to inject some offense into the lineup somehow, it won't be an easy task.
Why go with Blanton over Kendrick? It seems to me that Kendrick usually pitches better (when he starts) than Blanton does. Replacing Oswalt will be tough unless they find someone else.
I'm interested to see if they actually tender a contract to Kendrick. He'll probably make about $3M if he goes to arbitration. He has value as someone who can pitch out of the 'pen or start but that's a lot of money for that type of role.
Ranking of starting pitchers 1-10 10 being very good top notch type of guy
Roy Halliday 10 Cliff Lee 8.5 Cole Hamels 8.5/9 Vance Worley 5 Joe Blanton 6
Halliday is dependable, you know he will win close to 20 games for you every year and he doesnt get hurt as much as other guys. Lee is a good pitcher but he is not longer a 18-20 game winner. He can potentially win that many still but he is getting older now so i would be happy with 10-15 W's from him. Cole Hamels is a young dominator who will win 20 games eventually but right now i am happy with his production( 10- 15 W's). Worley had an outstanding rookie season last year but i feel that we will really see if he is any good if he makes changes when the hitters start figuring him out. He is still young with a lot of talent but i do not really know what to expect seeing we r only coming in only his 2nd full season inthe majors
What are the chances that a few years down the line that one of Rollins or Utley leaves while the other moves to third, and the middle infield then consists of Caesar Hernandez at second and Freddy Galvis at short.
Utley is a free agent after 2013 so Hernandez or Garcia are options. Rollins is probably sticking at SS through the length of his contract so Galvis could be trade bait.
Thanks for the feedback, dude! I have Mayberry as the #6 hitter in my lineup projection vs LHP, which is available for MLBDC Magazine subscribers. Please send me a link if you've read that Mayberry will be the primary LF. Unless you are Charlie Manuel and you're gonna be writing out the lineups, a link would be very helpful.
From what I've read, Thome might play 1B only a few times per month and Nix and Mayberry will share time in LF. That leaves Wigginton as the primary 1B, although I can also see Nix and Mayberry getting starts there as well. And while I don't see Mayberry/Nix as a straight platoon, which would give Nix the majority of AB's, I see more of a 50/50 split with Mayberry starting against LHP's and some RHP's.
The projected lineup shown here is just my opinion on a team's 'go-to' lineup, if the season started today. In the case of the Phillies, I doubt they'll throw the same exact lineup on the field very often. So showing one lineup doesn't tell the whole story.
Jason, you need to update Mayberry as the everyday LF:
Bleacher report article on the Phillies LF situation (posted today): http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1099594-philadelphia-phillies-handicapping-the-phillies-left-field-battle#/articles/1099532-predicting-the-starting-lineups-of-all-30-mlb-teams
GM Amaro saying it's his job to lose this spring on 1/25: http://articles.philly.com/2012-01-25/sports/30663382_1_domonic-brown-ruben-amaro-john-mayberry
Manuel saying Mayberry will get a chance to be an everyday player in 2012 on 10/12: http://articles.mcall.com/2011-10-12/sports/mc-phillies-blog2-1012-2-20111012_1_john-mayberry-first-baseman-ryan-howard-dom-brown
I also have read about a Nix/Mayberry platoon in LF, and that is indeed likely while Howard is out. But once the big guy returns, Mayberry is the everyday LF as long as he continues to produce, which I think is a good bet. I also agree with Anonymous, hitting in the 6-hole.
By the way, Mitch Williams concurs: http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/03/05/mitch-williams-says-john-mayberry-jr-is-waiting-to-explode/
Posts
14 comments :
I selected Madson although I'm thinking he's more of the "first" priority rather than the "top" priority. They need to inject some offense into the lineup somehow, it won't be an easy task.
Why go with Blanton over Kendrick? It seems to me that Kendrick usually pitches better (when he starts) than Blanton does. Replacing Oswalt will be tough unless they find someone else.
I'm interested to see if they actually tender a contract to Kendrick. He'll probably make about $3M if he goes to arbitration. He has value as someone who can pitch out of the 'pen or start but that's a lot of money for that type of role.
Ranking of starting pitchers 1-10 10 being very good top notch type of guy
Roy Halliday 10
Cliff Lee 8.5
Cole Hamels 8.5/9
Vance Worley 5
Joe Blanton 6
Halliday is dependable, you know he will win close to 20 games for you every year and he doesnt get hurt as much as other guys.
Lee is a good pitcher but he is not longer a 18-20 game winner. He can potentially win that many still but he is getting older now so i would be happy with 10-15 W's from him.
Cole Hamels is a young dominator who will win 20 games eventually but right now i am happy with his production( 10- 15 W's). Worley had an outstanding rookie season last year but i feel that we will really see if he is any good if he makes changes when the hitters start figuring him out. He is still young with a lot of talent but i do not really know what to expect seeing we r only coming in only his 2nd full season inthe majors
What are the chances that a few years down the line that one of Rollins or Utley leaves while the other moves to third, and the middle infield then consists of Caesar Hernandez at second and Freddy Galvis at short.
Utley is a free agent after 2013 so Hernandez or Garcia are options. Rollins is probably sticking at SS through the length of his contract so Galvis could be trade bait.
John Mayberry will be the #6 hitter. Pretty big mistake putting Nix/Wiggington in the lineup instead of Mayberry, update your chart dudes.
Thanks for the feedback, dude! I have Mayberry as the #6 hitter in my lineup projection vs LHP, which is available for MLBDC Magazine subscribers. Please send me a link if you've read that Mayberry will be the primary LF. Unless you are Charlie Manuel and you're gonna be writing out the lineups, a link would be very helpful.
From what I've read, Thome might play 1B only a few times per month and Nix and Mayberry will share time in LF. That leaves Wigginton as the primary 1B, although I can also see Nix and Mayberry getting starts there as well. And while I don't see Mayberry/Nix as a straight platoon, which would give Nix the majority of AB's, I see more of a 50/50 split with Mayberry starting against LHP's and some RHP's.
The projected lineup shown here is just my opinion on a team's 'go-to' lineup, if the season started today. In the case of the Phillies, I doubt they'll throw the same exact lineup on the field very often. So showing one lineup doesn't tell the whole story.
Jason, you need to update Mayberry as the everyday LF:
Bleacher report article on the Phillies LF situation (posted today):
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1099594-philadelphia-phillies-handicapping-the-phillies-left-field-battle#/articles/1099532-predicting-the-starting-lineups-of-all-30-mlb-teams
GM Amaro saying it's his job to lose this spring on 1/25:
http://articles.philly.com/2012-01-25/sports/30663382_1_domonic-brown-ruben-amaro-john-mayberry
Manuel saying Mayberry will get a chance to be an everyday player in 2012 on 10/12:
http://articles.mcall.com/2011-10-12/sports/mc-phillies-blog2-1012-2-20111012_1_john-mayberry-first-baseman-ryan-howard-dom-brown
I also have read about a Nix/Mayberry platoon in LF, and that is indeed likely while Howard is out. But once the big guy returns, Mayberry is the everyday LF as long as he continues to produce, which I think is a good bet. I also agree with Anonymous, hitting in the 6-hole.
By the way, Mitch Williams concurs:
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/03/05/mitch-williams-says-john-mayberry-jr-is-waiting-to-explode/
Projection changed. For the record, I've always thought Mayberry would play more than Nix and Wigginton, just split between 1B/LF.
Yup, I understand what you're saying, just looked wierd projecting Mayberry as a bench player. Great site, keep up the fantastic work!
Any way Luis Montañez will make the roster as the fifth outfielder? He's had a really good spring so far!
I don't think he has a great shot. Looks like he'll have to beat out Pierre and Podsednik for one bench spot.
Montanez may make it over Pierre or Podsednik... depends on if they find a RHB to be the util infielder over Orr.
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