by Jim Brown
*Players considered to be 'under the radar' are in AA or lower and not ranked by Baseball America as a top 10 prospect or by Baseball Prospectus as a top 11 prospect in their respective organization.
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Willie Kempf, RHP 2010 stats: 8-2, 1.70 ERA; 74.1 IP, 53 H, 11 BB, 71 K in 15 games, 9 starts (Lo-A/Rookie Level)
As the staff ace at Baylor University and two-time team Captain, Kempf just about pitched the Bears to the Big 12 Championship in 2010, only to come up short in the title game. As with most advanced college pitchers, the 23 year-old overpowered the younger players in the GCL (2-0, 11 IP, 0 ER, 3 BB, 12 K) after being drafted by Atlanta in the 27th Round of the 2010 draft. He was quickly promoted to the Danville Braves in the Appy League but this stop also proved to be brief as Kempf again went 2-0 in 5 appearances (4 starts) with a 1.91 ERA. The Rome Braves would be his next destination, where he would finish out the 2010 season on another high note (4-2, 35 IP, 30 H, 6 BB 31 K).
Known a fierce competitor, Kempf also has a good head on his shoulders. He was named on the 2009 Dean’s List at Baylor, as well as an 8-time mention to the Big 12 Commissioner’s Honor Roll, and 2010 1st Team Academic All-Big 12 Conference. On the mound, Kempf shows good pitchability and is very durable. His pitches have good movement and control and he keeps the ball on the ground and inside the fence (59% groundball rate and 2 HR’s over 74.1 IP while at Lo-A Rome). Kempf's arsenal includes a heavy low 90’s fastball, a cutter that he learned in 2009, a very good slider, and a high 80’s sinker. Turning these pitches into plus offerings may provide Kempf a slot into the rotation although it appears he'll start in the bullpen with Hi-A Lynchburg.
Florida Marlins
Zachary Neal, RHP 2010 stats: 2-1, 1.44 ERA; 31.1 IP, 27 H, 3 BB, 27 BB in 7 games, 6 starts (Short-Season/Rookie Level)
Neal is another advanced college pitcher that was on the short end of the 2010 College World Series. The 22 year old was involved in a pitcher's duel versus South Carolina during an elimination game, losing 3-2 in which the bullpen surrendered the winning run in extra innings. Neal was pitching for the Oklahoma Sooners. It's been said that if you stop at a roadside diner in Oklahoma, there’s a good chance you might run into a scout from the Florida Marlins. No MLB team scouts the state as hard as the Marlins, who found Neal and selected him in the 17th round of the 2010 draft. He has a 4-pitch blend that mainly consists of a fastball and slider. The fastball has good sink and ranges from 87 to 90, but tops out at 93. The slider comes as his secondary offering and is described as “tight” and is comparable to his fastball that’s deceiving to hitters. The remainder of his pitches would be a below-average change-up that shows late movement and an average curveball. Neal has a quick delivery, but with outstanding control that keeps the ball down in the zone. He should find himself with Lo-A Greensboro at some point in 2011.
New York Mets
Angel Cuan, LHP 2010 stats: 5-1, 1.93 ERA; 84.0 IP, 71 H, 18 BB, 66 K in 17 games, 14 starts (Hi-A/Short-Season)
At 5’ 11” and 150 pounds, most scouts don’t give Cuan much of a chance to advance to the majors, let alone through the Mets' system. He was signed as an International free agent in 2007 and spent the following season in the Venezuelan Summer League. It was his stat line in the VSL that caught my eye when I began to follow pitchers for MLBDepthCharts in 2009. You had to look past the 1-8 record to see the then 19-year-old lefty put up a very respectable 3.13 ERA and 11.74/1 K/B ratio. Things went south in 2009 as Cuan came to the states to play for the Kingsport Mets in the Appy League and a short stint with the Brooklyn Cyclones. Hitters teed up on Cuan by rapping 91 hits over 67.2 innings (.327 avg.) as he went 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA and fell off the radar. The 21 year-old showed that things maybe starting to come together when he returned to Brooklyn in 2010, plus a short stay at Hi-A St. Lucie (4.1 relief innings).
It’s the three solid to above average pitches that makes Cuan an appealing pitcher for 2011. For his size and stature, Cuan has a very aggressive mound presence and commands the corners of the plate. His fastball runs in the 87-89 mph range and can top out at 91 mph. Radar guns have seen a few of his fastballs in the mid 90’s, so the velocity may appear as Cuan racks up innings and gains strength. His secondary pitch is a 75-78 mph sturdy overhand curve. He also has a solid change-up with a straight drop that he throws with outstanding deception based on his arm speed. Both the curve and change-up have been rated as MLB average. He won't mow down hitters, but rather will avoid contact by mixing all three pitches while changing velocity. Again, Cuan is a work in progress and it should be fun to watch him defy the naysayers. Follow him chewing up innings when he reaches Lo-A Savannah sometime in 2011.
Philadelphia Phillies
Colby Shreve, RHP 2010 stats: 7-5, 3.95 ERA; 109.1 IP, 95 H, 30 BB, 76 K over 23 games, 18 starts (Lo-A)
The Phillies feel that Colby has the potential, but the 2008 draftee has yet to prove it to the club since he didn't make his debut until 2010. Shreve blew out his elbow just before the 2008 draft that required Tommy John surgery. The right-hander was one of the top Junior College pitchers before the injury and was projected to be a 1st or 2nd round pick. The Phillies had enough faith and the reputation of rehabbing young pitchers that they selected Shreve in the 6th round out of the College of South Nevada. Returning to mound at Lo-A Lakewood, the 6’ 5”, 210 lb Shreve had a solid debut by putting up a respectable 3.95 ERA over 109.1 innings. Shreve’s pitches were very raw, but the 23 year-old showed a solid approach to the game and though it was his first pro season, demonstrated a calm demeanor on the bump.
He throws an excellent four-seam fastball and had late season success in 2010 with a 2- seamer with a sharp downward sink. Shreve’s fastball ran between 91-94 mph in college, but fell to a post-surgery range in the high-80’s. His best pitch is a 76-79 mph change-up that is a complement to his curve, which rates as a slurve. He needs to place more spin on the ball and work on repeating his delivery. What’s curious about Shreve during his post-injury resume is that he had remarkable control during his outings. Pitchers who undergo TJS usually see their velocity return first, then their control. Shreve has been the opposite, which should poise him for a breakout in 2011. Baseball America agrees, as they listed him as a sleeper candidate. With the amount of innings thrown with the Blue Claws, look for Shreve to begin 2011 at Hi-A Clearwater. If things fall apart this season, Shreve was rated as a prospect at third base, so the Phillies can take a look at him at position that is very thin in their system.
Washington Nationals
Trevor Holder, RHP 2010 stats: 7-6, 3.64; 136.0 IP, 144, 29 BB, 102 K in 27 games, 26 starts (Hi-A/Lo-A)
Holder epitomizes the term – 'under the radar'. Usually a person can’t recall who finished second in last year’s Masters’, nor the Daytona 500, or whom the New York Yankees drafted as their 2nd pick. After Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen were taken by the Nats in the 1st Round of the 2009 draft, it was easy to slide under the radar, which is exactly where Holder found himself after being taken two rounds later. When the dust settled and the “after” picks began to set in, most in the Beltway where shocked that a virtual no-name was chosen so high. The right-hander out of the University of Georgia was not even mentioned in the top 200 pitchers by Baseball America. He actually did have a reputation, as the Marlins selected him with their 10th round pick in 2008.
Starting his pro career with a 5 inning jaunt at short-season Vermont and 12.2 IP at Lo-A Hagerstown, the 6’ 2” Holder was rushed to Hi-A Potomac were he was hit hard (2-3, 9.26 ERA in 23.1 IP) and it appeared that fatigue was taking its toll. Self-hype in regards to the 3rd round selection may have caused Holder to press himself. His fastball usually ran into the high 80’s but at Hi-A Potomac he was throwing up to the mid-90’s with no movement, thus the hitters were raking his offerings. He regained his fastball in 2010 and was throwing nothing but strikes during his return to Hagerstown with an 7.5 K/BB rate. Holder needs some work, but 2011 could be the year that it comes together. He has the tools and a gritty disposition, but just lacks that plus pitch. He has a slurvy curveball, but his changeup needs some refinement by reducing the speed and placing trust in it. If Holder shows a breakout this year, his projection as a #3 or #4 starter would be in sight, otherwise he’s on the path to be a long reliever.
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Robert Whitenack, RHP 2010 stats: 11-8, 4.15 ERA; 143.0 IP, 134 H, 40 BB, 91 K in 28 games, 27 starts (Hi-A/Lo-A)
Pitching for SUNY-Old Westbury (NY) would be enough to keep you under the radar, but Whitenack saw up to 20 scouts make the stop at the Division III School in the Skyline Conference. They were there to scout the kid that throws the rarely used knuckle-curve, ala Burt Hooten from the late 70’s and early 80’s. The two-time Conference Pitcher of the Year was taken by the Cubs during the 8th round of the 2009 draft. He began his pro career with short-season Boise in the Northwest League (0-4, 4.80 ERA over 54 plus innings). Lo-A Peoria would be his first destination in 2010 where he struggled up to the All-Star Break giving up a 5.85 ERA in 13 starts. After the break, the 22 year-old put together 3 quality starts that earned him a promotion to Daytona. His first Hi-A outing was horrible but he later settled down and finished strong by not allowing more than 2 runs in any of his last 4 starts (3-1, 2.04 ERA; 39.2 IP, 32 H, 10 BB, 28 K in 7 starts).
Whitenack has a very projectable frame at 6’ 5”, which allows him to come off the mound at a good angle. The right-hander has a solid arm action, pitches to contact, and had a 63 % groundball rate at Daytona. The 80 mph knuckle-curve has a 12-to-6 tumble and rates 80 on the 20-80 scale. He also throws a low 90’s fastball that is a plus pitch and is working on a slider, which along with his change-up are average. Despite his late season improvement at Daytona, Whitenack will repeat Hi-A and continue to work on his other pitches. Finishing at Double-A Tennessee in 2011 could be within reach.
Cincinnati Reds
Justin Walker, LHP 2010 stats: 7-12, 6.03 ERA; 128.1 IP, 159 H, 19 BB, 112 K in 26 games, 22 starts (Hi-A/Lo-A)
Every season there is a pitcher that doesn’t quite show the stat line that dictates the progress that is being made. Walker maybe the enigma for the upcoming 2011 season. Drafted as a junior out of Lamar College (TEX) in the 41st Round of the 2008 draft, information on him is very scarce. While at Lamar, Walker was mediocre at best, but did show flashes of having pinpoint control as he had a 35 BBs and 135 Ks over 131 innings. He began his first full season in 2009 by splitting time between Billings (Pioneer League), Lo-A Dayton, and an appearance with Hi-A Sarasota. In all, his career stat line after the 2009 season didn’t look that bad (1-5, 3.59 ERA; 60.1 IP, 66 H 12 BB, 55 K), except an alarming 1.2 HR/9.0 rate. His 2010 campaign began with a return to Lo-A Dayton, where things got ugly for Walker. The casualty of numerous big innings, Walker surrendered 66 earned runs and 16 HRs over 101 innings. Despite a 3-10 record and a 5.88 ERA, the Reds promoted Walker back to Hi-A and it didn’t get any better (6.59 ERA; 27.1 IP, 20 ER in 6 starts). The control was once again there, as he struck out 28 while walking only three. I believe Walker will start missing bats and it will all come together for him in 2011. That might be a tough pill, because the Reds have changed their Hi-A affiliation to the Bakersfield Blaze of the hitter-friendly California League.
Houston Astros
Luis Cruz, LHP 2010 stats: 8-5, 3.61 ERA; 99.2 IP, 96 H, 26 BB, 88 K in 20 games, 16 starts (Lo-A)
Cruz is the youngest pitcher to the make the pre-season list at just 20 years old. After being selected in the 9th round of the 2008 draft, the 17-year old quickly created a stir when he failed to give up an earned run in five of his seven starts at Rookie Level Greenville of the Appy League. The buzz swiftly subsided as Cruz came down with an undisclosed arm issue that required surgery. Cruz revisited Greenville in 2009 where the effects of the surgery lingered to the tune of a 6.75 ERA and command issues reared its head with 10 HR over 54 plus innings. The Astros promoted Cruz to Lo-A Lexington to the start the 2010 season and placed him in the bullpen to regain his command and control. By mid-June, Cruz was back in the rotation and back to being the pitcher that created the hype in 2008. The 5’9" left-hander parlayed a string of quality starts, including a 10-strikeout performance over 7.2 innings on July 29th that earned him an honorable mention on the 'Under the Radar' feature.
Currently, Cruz’s ceiling is limited due to his small frame. He does have an electric fastball (90ish) that might be his ticket to carry him through the system. It’s been rated as very effective, but Cruz doesn’t use it to smoke hitters, but instead to induce groundballs (1.19 GB/FB Ratio). He also has a strong change-up and very solid curveball. He has not been assigned to a full-season affiliate (reason unknown) but I'd expect him with Hi-A Lancaster or back with Lo-A Lexington at some point in 2011.
Milwaukee Brewers
Maverick Lasker, RHP 2010 stats: 7-5, 4.61 ERA; 105.1 IP, 106 H, 35 BB, 70 K in 23 games, 17 starts (Lo-A)
It’s a shame this kid isn’t playing in the Midwest League with a name like Maverick or the Texas League, for that matter. The senior turned down a scholarship offer from Tony Gwynn’s San Diego St. Aztecs to sign with the Brewers after they took him in the 5th Round of the 2008 draft. He didn't make his pro debut until 2009 because of a back injury and he started in the bullpen, where he amassed a 5-1 record and 3.26 ERA over 13 appearances. This led to a promotion to Lo-A Wisconsin, where the 6'2" right-hander made two starts with the Timber Rattlers. Still only 20 year old, he repeated Lo-A in 2010.
Known to have an aggressive demeanor on the mound, Lasker likes to hammer the strike zone and was the victim of hanging the ball high. Lasker also got a touch of the “wilds” as he threw 18 wild pitches during the 2010 season. Noted for a fervent work ethic, Lasker throws a fastball that is in the low 90’s, but has touched as high at 94. He has curve that’s been called slurvy but throws it with inconsistency. His changeup is average but has the makings of being a quality pitch. Though Lasker has the control to pound the zone with his pitches and as with most young pitchers, he lacks command. He is likely to begin 2011 at Hi-A Brevard County in the Florida State League.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philip Irwin, RHP 2010 stats: 6-3, 3.35 ERA; 113.0 IP, 99 H, 20 BB, 111 K in 23 games, 20 starts (Lo-A)
I usually begin breaking down my notes from the previous season around mid-November to draft a list for the 2011 Pre-Season UTR list. I’m always excited to breakdown the Pirates first to see how the young Buccos fared and who will rise to the top. I guess that I should have waited this season, because my pick this year was Nathan Adcock, who was selected by the Royals in the Rule 5 Draft. It turned out to be a good choice as Adcock made the Royals' Opening Day Roster. That’s OK, because close behind Adcock was Irwin. The 6’3” Irwin was drafted out of the University of Mississippi in the 21st round of the 2009 draft. The 24 year-old shows good command of a 89-91 fastball that can reach 93 mph. He also throws a decent two-seamer, which currently doesn’t have much drop. The curveball is his out pitch and the changeup is the pitch that needs the most work. Irwin will pitch to his strengths and keeps the walks down and the ball in the park. Irwin probably had to pack heavy when he reported to Bradenton for Spring Training, as he should remain there when camp breaks along with his Ole Miss teammate Nathan Baker.
St. Louis Cardinals
Deryk Hooker, RHP 2010 stats: 8-7, 2.99 ERA; 111.1 IP, 97 H, 36 BB, 127 K in 26 games, 19 starts (Hi-A/Lo-A)
Hooker has been in the Cardinals system for four seasons and has been overshadowed by the likes of Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, and Joe Kelly. Though many have never heard of Hooker, some say that he should be mentioned in the same list with the latter two pitchers. The tall, projectable Hooker was selected in the 7th round of the 2007 draft. Rated as one of the most polished arms out in the 2007 Cardinals draft, he has a loose arm action with good speed. Scouts say that if he can condense his delivery, it would be a big step toward his advancement. He get hitters out by having command on his low 90’s fastball that shows good movement and can spot on the corners. His best pitch is the 66-71 mph curve which rates as a plus offering. He also has command of a third pitch, a solid average change-up. I believe that Hooker is the most exciting pitching prospect in the Cards' system and is poised to make some noise in 2011. The 21 year-old is on Double-A Springfield's roster, a very aggressive assignment if that's where he does start.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Kable Hogben, RHP 2010 stats: 0-0, 0.72 ERA, 37.1 IP, 17 H, 7 BB, 43 K, 10 Sv in 28 relief appearances (Short-Season)
In a country known more for that “other” type of football and cricket, Australia may have produced a future bullpen phemon in the 20-year-old Hogben. He was signed in March 2007 as a 16-year-old from the Victorian Institute of Sport, an organization that molds elite athletes, while playing for the Cheltenham Baseball Club. He spent the rest of 2007 at Australia’s baseball academy before heading to the States for extended spring training and instructional leagues in 2008. He made his pro debut in 2009 for the Missoula Osprey of the Pioneer Rookie League making 13 appearances (1-1, 5.57, 21 IP, 9 BB, 17 K). He then received the honor to be called back home to pitch for his country in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
Hogben took huge steps in 2010 improving his numbers from last season. In 28 appearances for the Short-Season Yakima Bears, the right-hander collected a team high 10 saves. The only blemish in his stat line was the eight batters he whacked, but digging further you will find only one wild pitch, which tells me that he not afraid to pitch inside. He had only surrendered 2 earned runs in his last 20 appearances and didn’t serve up a home run all season. In fact, he joined the combination of bullpen prospects Jake Hale and Eury De La Rosa in not allowing a home run in 120 combined innings. Arizona’s scouts are excited about what could happen when the youngster fills out his 6'3" frame. They expect his velocity to increase in the mid-90’s, where he could be best suited as a future set-up man. Expect him to take on that role in 2011 with Lo-A South Bend.
Colorado Rockies
Albert Campos, RHP 2010 stats: 4-4, 2.05 ERA; 88 IP, 80 H, 17 BB, 68 K in 15 starts (Short-Season)
As soon as I received my copy of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, the first section that I turned to was the Colorado Rockies. What I found was bittersweet. First, to see Campos receiving a rank was gut wrenching, but exhilarating that it was below our UTR criteria of the top 10. I was hoping to breakout the right-hander in my pre-season list, but when he garnered the Pitcher of the Year in the Pioneer League, I knew it wouldn’t be long for him to begin cropping up on the lists and blogs. Ranked #13 by BA, Campos hit my radar in mid-August when he threw a four-hit shutout over eight innings with 6 strikeouts for the Casper Ghosts. He followed that up by striking out nine batters over eight innings in his next start. His 6'4", 222 lb. frame is a perfect build for a starting pitcher. I will also show a bias because before featuring for MLBDC, I gleaned another young Venezuelan pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin, for my NL-Only Keeper league in 2008 when he was pitching for Lo-A Ashville. By the time you read this, I hope he that he gave me a quality start for the Rox on April 5th.
Campos is an imposing sight on the mound. He has long legs and a thick upper body that will only get stronger as he matures. He throws a low 90’s sinking fastball with excellent control that can top out at 93 mph. Casper coaches also state that Campos’ velocity stays consistent deep into his starts. The curveball is his outpitch and he is still developing a change-up, which he learned once he came over to the States.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Red Patterson, RHP 2010 stats: 6-1, 3.33 ERA; 67.2 IP, 70 H, 17 BB, 66 K in 14 starts (Short-Season)
Despite his age and level, I’m taking a flier on Patterson for 2011. The 23 year-old was picked in the 29th round of the 2010 draft and should be poised for a big move. Red spent two years at Grayson Junior College where he went 10-1 with a 1.41 ERA and earned all conference honors. He then went to the U. of Texas-San Antonio (5-3, 4.96 ERA) and was the staff ace with 86 strikeouts over 94.1 innings. Last year he transferred to SW Oklahoma State and finished his season with a 6.84 ERA, but had an impressive strikeout rate of 103 in 72 innings. The Dodgers sent the right-hander to the Ogden Raptors of the Pioneer League to begin his pro career, where he was impressive in his 14 starts. It was surprising to see that he didn’t get a taste of Lo-A ball before the season ended but he should be in the rotation at Lo-A Great Lakes before long.
San Diego Padres
Michael Watt, LHP 2010 stats: 6-6, 3.82; 125 IP 128 H, 37 BB, 105 K in 28 games, 25 starts (Lo-A)
Watt has been around a long time. How long? He was involved in the trade that sent Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 2008. But Watt just turned 22 back in February. The Dodgers' organization thought highly of the former 2nd Round pick and hated to part ways with him. Leading Lo-A Fort Wayne in innings pitched last season, the 6’ 1” Watt found a consistency with a change in his mechanics. He throws a solid fastball in the low 90’s. His secondary pitch is a curve that can be devastating when he is in command of it. The fact that he’s been in the Padres system for three seasons and repeated Lo-A last year may have given him the stigma of being a bust. It was probably the best move for the Friars, however, as Watt found a renewed energy and a more centered focus. What we will see in 2011 will be a mentally improved, mature 22 year-old who will begin the new season this week at Hi-A Lake Elsinore.
San Francisco Giants
Chris Heston, RHP 2010 stats: 5-13, 3.75 ERA; 148.2 IP, 161 H, 33 BB, 124 K in 26 starts (Lo-A)
Drafted out of East Carolina University in 2009, Heston has solid numbers as a pro despite a 6-18 record. As with most young pitchers in the minors, you have look past the win-loss record to see that Heston had an outstanding sophomore season for Lo-A Augusta. The 6'4" Heston led the team in innings pitched and strikeouts and carried an ERA of 2.56 after the All-Star Break in 13 starts. Down the stretch, he had a sub-1.50 ERA for the month of August. The soon-to-be 23 year-old allowed three or fewer earned runs in 15 of 17 starts on the season. His record reflexes that he didn’t have the offensive support of the Augusta bats. Unfortunately it will be some of the same Augusta teammates that failed him offensively in 2010 that will join him with Hi-A San Jose this season. We may again have to look past the record to track Heston's progression, which I hope includes a trip to Double-A Richmond at some point.
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