by Jason Martinez
I'll be answering reader questions a few times each week in a new feature I'm calling 'The INBOX at MLBDepthCharts.com'. If you have a roster-related question, submit it HERE and I'll do my best to answer within the next few days.
D. Ropiak asks, "When do you see Hosmer and Moustakas coming up?"
You do know that the question is referring to Royals prospects Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, right? If you don't, then you definitely don't live in the same world as me and all of the baseball junkies that visit this site regularly. Both players have blown through the minors and are now awaiting the call to the big leagues in Triple-A. The answer to the question, unfortunately, is that no one really knows. You have to figure the Kansas City front office probably has a pretty good idea but we can't even be 100% sure that they know either. There are so many factors involved. Of course, whether anyone will ever admit it or not, service time is a factor. A player will be eligible for arbitration a year early if they accrue a certain amount of days in the big leagues. That exact number is still a mystery since teams do not reveal that information but June 1st seems to be a safe bet if you want to save a few million bucks and not speed up a player's arbitration clock.
Moving on to other factors that actually involve a player's performance, let's take a look at a few reasons why Wilson Betemit and Kila Ka'aihue are getting the majority of playing time in Kansas City while two of the top hitting prospects in baseball, who happen to play the same positions as Betemit and Ka'aihue, are in Triple-A. First off, Betemit leads the team with a .913 OPS. Good time to trade him if you ask me before he has a chance to slump and lower his trade value. The Royals, however, are 12-13 and in second place in the AL Central and shouldn't be in 'fire sale' mode just yet. Getting rid of one of your better hitters is never a good message to fans although replacing him with Moustakas probably would make it a popular move. In Ka'aihue's case, he's not doing the Royals any favors by hitting just .186 with 2 HRs in 20 games. Since we can assume that he is not part of the team's future, the best thing that can happen for the organization is to see Ka'aihue start hitting and boost his trade value over the next month or two and then hand the job over to Hosmer. His value is currently at an all-time low so I'm guessing that they'll probably stick with him a bit longer to see if he can turn things around.
We can't forget the scenarios that could land either/or both players in Kansas City sometime in the next month. Injuries do occur frequently in baseball, although major league teams tend to not promote their best prospects for a temporary stint. The golden rule seems to be to only promote a top prospect once the organization has a pretty good feeling that they'll be there to stay. So when will Hosmer and Moustakas be ready to leave the minor leagues behind for good? Both are capable of putting up huge numbers in a short amount of time. Hosmer is 7 for his last 11 to raise his average to .408 with 2 HRs, 5 2Bs, 12 RBIs, and 11 BBs. Pretty impressive but it would be nice to see the 21 year-old hit a few more home runs before he gets the call. Moustakas, 22, is off to a slow start but he hit two homers yesterday, giving him 4 HRs and 16 RBIs in 19 games. Overall, he's now hitting .237 with an OBP of .301. Far from deserving of a promotion. Of course, if he heats up and has a few more big games, his numbers could look a whole lot different in a week or two.
For comparison's sake, let's take a look at the top three hitting prospects to be promoted in 2010:
Domonic Brown, OF (Phillies): .327 BA, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 22 2B, 4 3B, 37 BB, 74 K, 17 SB in 93 games (28 games in AAA/65 in AA) Promotion Date: July 28, 2010
Buster Posey, C (Giants): .349 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 13 2B, 2 3B, 28 BB, 30 K in 47 AAA games Promotion Date: May 29, 2010
Mike Stanton, OF (Marlins): .313 BA, 21 HR, 52 RBI, 13 2B, 2 3B, 44 BB, 53 K in 53 AA games Promotion Date: June 8, 2010
All three were putting up big numbers but called to the majors for different reasons. With a crowded outfield in Philly, Brown had to wait until Shane Victorino landed on the DL before he got the call. He struggled, however, hitting .210 in 62 ABs. Posey was called up to spark a struggling Giants offense. It worked. The eventual Rookie of the Year made, arguably, the biggest impact of any player on the World Champions. Stanton's debut was not a surprise since he was the talk of the minors by the beginning of May. But I don't know if anyone had expected Stanton until 2011, so his arrival in June of 2010 was the result of a 20 year-old power-hitter kicking the door down to the big leagues. He didn't embarrass himself either once he got there, hitting .259 with 22 HRs and 59 RBIs in 100 games with the Marlins.
So there you have three different reasons a top prospect can get the call to the bigs. I don't anticipate a Posey-like call up to spark the Royals' offense. And unlike Brown, there isn't anyone standing in either player's way. I think we should expect a post-June 1st promotion for both players unless they force the Royals' hand by putting up Stanton-like numbers over a 1-2 week period. Keep an eye on their last 7-10 day stats to see if they can.
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