by Jason Martinez
Atlanta Braves
Center Field
Nate McLouth (lock) vs Jordan Schafer (out)
Tale of the Tape
McLouth: 29 years old, $6.5M salary, .190/.298/322 in 242 AB's, 7 SB, -31.9 UZR/150
Schafer: 24 years old, $414K salary, .201/.268/255 in 274 AB's, 12 SB (AAA/AA/HiA)
Analysis: It's McLouth's job to lose, mostly because of his salary and pre-2010 production, but it's easy to forget that Schafer was the team's opening day center fielder in 2009 as a 22 year-old. After a stellar April, he slumped in May and was optioned to the minors. He battled through an injury before undergoing bone-fusion surgery in his left wrist and hand in September and then suffered through a terrible '10 season. If he can return to his previous form and McLouth doesn't, it wouldn't be surprising to see Schafer win the job. UPDATE 3/5 - McLouth is off to a great start this spring, making it very unlikely that Schafer has any chance to start the season as the starting center fielder. UPDATE 3/19 - McLouth has locked up the spot with a very good spring (11-for-37, 8 BB, 2 K) while Schafer has struggled (9-for-51).
#5 Starter
Brandon Beachy (named starter) vs Mike Minor (out) vs Rodrigo Lopez (out)
Tale of the Tape
Minor: 23 years old, $414K salary, 3-2, 5.98 ERA, 40.2 IP, 53 H, 11 BB, 43 K in 9 games (8 starts)
Beachy: 24 years old, $414K salary, 0-2, 3.00 ERA, 15 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 15 K in 3 starts
Lopez: 35 years old, $TBD salary, 7-16, 5.00 ERA, 200 IP, 227 H, 56 BB, 116 K in 33 starts
Analysis: Minor likely showed enough in his eight starts with the team following an impressive minor league season to pencil him into the rotation for the start of the '11 season. However, he will be just 23 on opening day and, unlike the established veterans, will still have to prove himself in spring training. If they don't think he's ready, Beachy would be plan B and if Kawakami isn't traded prior to then, I'm sure they'd love to see their $6.67M investment for 2011 put to work on the major league club. UPDATE 2/1 - Lopez is now in the mix after agreeing to a minor league deal. His ERA and record aren't impressive but he managed 33 starts and 200 innings. UPDATE 3/19 - It was Minor's job to lose coming in and he definitely hasn't hurt his chances (10 IP, ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 7 K). Beachy has been nearly impressive but he's likely to start in Triple-A. UPDATE 3/23 - Beachy is reportedly expected to win out over Minor but I'm not buying it just yet. Both pitchers are pitching well and Minor would give the team it's sole lefty in the rotation, which is why he's my pick. UPDATE 3/24 - Beachy has been named the starter. Minor will start the season in Triple-A.
Closer
Craig Kimbrel (even) vs Jonny Venters (even)
Tale of the Tape
Kimbrel: 22 years old, $425K salary, 4-0, 0.44 ERA, 20.2 IP, 9 H, 16 BB, 40 K, Sv
Venters: 26 years old, $440K salary, 4-4, 1.95 ERA, 83 IP, 61 H, 39 BB, 93 K, SV, 24 holds
Analysis: The only concern for Kimbrel is that he walked 16 batters in 20.2 IP. When he wasn't walking batters, he was completely dominating them. He'll get the first crack at the closer's job but Venters will be next in line if Kimbrel shows any signs of not being ready for the role. The rookie was one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball last season, limiting opponents to a .204 BA in 79 relief appearances. Regardless of who wins the job, the Braves have the potential to employ one of the best late-inning relief tandems in the big leagues over the next few years. UPDATE 3/23 - The duo will reportedly share closing duties although I have a feeling that one will eventually be the go-to guy after the first few weeks of the season.
Florida Marlins
Third Base
Donnie Murphy (slight favorite) vs Emilio Bonifacio (slight underdog) vs Matt Dominguez (out)
Tale of the Tape
Dominguez: 21 years old, $414K salary, .252/.333/.411 in 504 AB's (AA)
Bonifacio: 25 years old, $440K salary, .262/.320/.328 in 180 AB's, 12 SB
Analysis: Dominguez has a good shot because he's an excellent defender at the hot corner and he'd be put in a low pressure situation as the #8 hitter in a potentially very good lineup. If he's not ready, the Marlins could go back to their original plan of playing Coghlan at third base and go with Cousins or Bonifacio in center field. Either way, Coghlan will be playing a new position so they might not want to change plans too late in camp. UPDATE 3/24 - Dominguez was reassigned to minor league camp, meaning third base is now a wide open competition betweeen Bonifacio, Murphy, Helms, and Dobbs. Picking up an external option before Opening Day is another possibility. UPDATE 3/27 - Manager Edwin Rodriguez reportedly is leaning towards the better defender, meaning Murphy has the slight edge over Bonifacio at this point.
New York Mets
Second Base
Brad Emaus (favorite) vs Luis Hernandez (underdog) vs Daniel Murphy (underdog) vs Justin Turner (out)
Tale of the Tape
Emaus: 25 years old, $414K salary, .290/.397/.476 in 445 AB's, 13 SB (AAA/AA)
Hernandez: 26 years old, $425K salary, .290/.332/.403 in 414 AB's, 6 SB (AAA/AA)
Murphy: 26 years old, $440K salary, .266/.313/.427 in 508 AB's, 4 SB (2009 stats)
Turner: 26 years old, $414K, .316/.374/.487 in 396 AB's, 7 SB (AAA)
Analysis: As much as Mets fans want the Castillo era to end before his contract is up at the end of the season, his defense is still much better than Emaus or Murphy can provide. Murphy, who is probably the best hitter of the group right now, is still a work in progress at second base and Emaus, who offers the most power potential, is considered a below-average defender. On paper, a healthy Mets lineup is potent enough to offset Castillo's deficiencies from the #8 spot so I'm not sure how much they're willing to sacrifice defensively with Emaus or Murphy. Tejada is expected to be the starting shortstop at Triple-A in preparation of Jose Reyes' possible departure as a free agent after the season. He's an extreme long shot at this point to compete for the second base job. UPDATE 12/27 - Hu's acquisition adds one more candidate to the list. Considered an above-average defender, he hasn't hit much in various big league stints. He's hit for a high average in the minors but doesn't walk much or hit for much power. If given an extended big league stay, he can prove once and for all whether he is destined to be a starter or backup in the majors. UPDATE 1/12 - Based on recent comments by new GM Sandy Alderson, I've removed Hu from the competition and added Turner, a proven .300 hitter in the minors with some pop. Like Emaus and Murphy, he is limited defensively but provides more offensive potential than Castillo. UPDATE 2/28 - Looks like this battle is going to be more interesting than any one could've imagined. Castillo and Emaus are the front-runners. There is an incentive to go with Castillo because of his salary. But there's also incentive to go with Emaus since he's a Rule V acquisition and will likely head back to Toronto if he doesn't make the team. UPDATE 3/15 - Hernandez, apparently a favorite of Manager Terry Collins, has emerged as a favorite although he doesn't offer much offense at all. Can't see the Mets going in that direction. But if the rumors are true, it just may happen. UPDATE 3/18 - Castillo was released. UPDATE 3/23 - Turner was optioned to the minors. Emaus should be named starter any day now.
Philadelphia Phillies
None
Washington Nationals
Center Field
Rick Ankiel (named starter) vs Nyjer Morgan (traded) vs Roger Bernadina (out)
Tale of the Tape
Ankiel: 31 years old, $1.5M salary, .232/.321/.389 in 211 ABs, 3 SB
Morgan: 30 years old, $450K salary, .253/.319/.314 in 509 ABs, 34 SB
Analysis: This competition was analyzed by me over at RotoAuthority. Click here to read the article. UPDATE 3/12 - Manager Jim Riggleman hinted that Morse was in the lead in this competition. Bernadina, however, is also having a great camp while Ankiel and Morgan are struggling. If the season started today, we could have Bernadina leading off and playing centerfield with Morse in left. Fortunately for Morgan, the season doesn't start for almost three weeks. UPDATE 3/22 - Morse has already been declared the starter in left field and Bernadina is no longer in the running for the CF job. That leaves Ankiel and Morgan fighting for the last spot. UPDATE 3/27 - Morgan was traded this morning so Ankiel wins the job.
Closer
Drew Storen (favorite) vs Tyler Clippard (underdog) vs Henry Rodriguez (out)
Tale of the Tape
Storen: 23 years old, $414K salary, 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 55.1 IP, 48 H, 22 BB, 52 K in 54 games
Clippard: 26 years old, $414K salary, 11-8, 3.07 ERA, 91 IP, 69 H, 41 BB, 112 K in 41 games
Rodriguez: 24 years old, $414K salary, 1-0, 4.55 ERA, 27.2 IP, 25 H, 13 BB, 33 K in 29 games
Analysis: Storen is not going to be handed the closer's job but unless they plan on bringing in someone with more experience between now and opening day, he's the favorite over Clippard and newcomer Rodriguez, a hard-throwing 23 year-old who can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Clippard had amazing H/9 and K/9 ratios but it was Storen who was given a majority of the save opportunities after Matt Capps was traded at the July deadline while Clippard remained in a setup role. UPDATE 3/14 - Storen remains the favorite to get the majority of saves but he hasn't established himself this spring and the team could go to a closery-by committee with Clippard, Sean Burnett, and Todd Coffey all getting opportunities to close out games. Count Rodriguez out for now. The hard-throwing right-hander arrived late to camp due to visa issues and couldn't find the strike zone in his first outing.
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12 comments :
well since im a braves fan, i can comment on the braves... im pullin for schafer really hard this spring..mclouth was such a disappointment,it even affected his defense,,kawakami really had no offense support last year and he had no momentum and that adversely affected his pitching as the season went on.i wish they would trade mclouth, i see minor and beachy starting in AAA.
I agree. The Braves' rotation 1-4 is so good that they can probably afford to let the two youngsters start in the minors while Kawakami gets at least a few starts to show that last season was a fluke. Then again, I think they'll still try and trade him and pick up some of his salary for almost nothing in return so it might not get to that point.
what about the AL East.The redsox have jed lowrie and marco scutero fighting for shortstop.
Hopefully will have AL East done by Friday.
What about the Braves Closer competition? How does that shape up?
Should add that one to the list. I think, for the most part, Kimbrel closes and Venters gets the 8th inning but it appears to be an open competition going into Spring Training.
How about NYM SP battles? With the additions of Capuano and Young along with Gee all fighting for the 4 and 5 spots behind
Big Pelf
R.A. Dickey
Jon Niese
Hey Keith. My thoughts on why it's not a position battle at this point. Cap and Young have guaranteed deals. Young is not a reliever and if healthy, he's a very good starter. Cap can probably relieve but it sounds like they brought him in to be a starter. I say no competition unless injuries come up in the spring. Gee would be next in line at AAA.
Is there any doubt that Ramos starts the season in the bigs over Flores who sounds like his shoulder woes are over?
If Flores comes to camp and shows that he's healthy, they'll have to make a decision between him and Ramos. He's only 26 and appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season in 2009 before he was injured. He has an opportunity to build up some value if he's healthy. The Nats would have two really good young catchers and Pudge to mentor them. Good situation.
I heard a report that the Mets were considering releasing Luis Castillo and platooning Daniel Murphy at 2nd with OF Willie Harris. In your opinion, Is there any merit to Willie Harris playing a significant amount of 2nd base for the Mets?
Harris hasn't played 2B much over the past few years and didn't hit much at all last year so there is no reason to give him regular playing time there. Plus, he and Murphy, who probably isn't good enough defensively to see much time at 2B either, are both left-handed. A more likely scenario has Emaus starting regularly with Murphy getting an occasional start. But Castillo, from all indications, has the lead right now and is probably still their best option regardless of all the talk of releasing him.
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