by Jason Martinez
Trade talks are starting to heat up and teams will be looking to fill needs by dealing from a position of organizational strength. In other words, if a team has two capable third baseman or six capable starting pitchers, they will be more willing to trade one of them. Not all teams are included because some don't have a surplus at any position. Some teams are included but might have more than one average, but major league caliber, option at one position (i.e. Oakland - Third Base), while some teams, such as Tampa Bay, have six above average starting pitchers and can obviously seek much more in return. This list will change throughout the offseason as teams sign free agents and make trades. I will continue to add short updates all the way through spring training.
Arizona Diamondbacks
First Base - Neither option here is an established major leaguer, but Brandon Allen and Juan Miranda are potential major league starters that have put up impressive numbers throughout their minor league careers. There's also a chance that Adam LaRoche accepts arbitration, which has been offered to him. It really gets crowded if that happens. On the other hand, Miranda is out of options so he has a good shot of sticking while Allen can also play some outfield and can start the season in the minors, if necessary. It's a workable situation but GM Kevin Towers could probably deal Allen to a team looking for a young first baseman with power and plate discipline.
Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitching - Not only do they have 5-6 solid rotation options to start the season, the Braves have one of the better groups of minor league starting pitchers in baseball. Top pitching prospects Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado could reach Atlanta by 2012, if not sooner. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, and Scott Diamond are each coming off of strong minor league seasons and will be competing for the #5 spot in the rotation. If at least two of those three impress in Spring Training, the Braves will be comfortable dealing a starter to get better at another position.
Boston Red Sox
Shortstop - Did Jed Lowrie's strong second half (.907 OPS) put shortstop Marco Scutaro on the trade block? More teams are probably asking for Lowrie but the Sox might prefer to keep the 26 year-old, who is under team control for another four years, and deal the 35 year-old Scutaro, who could be a free agent after 2011. For now, I have Lowrie penciled in as the starting third baseman because there are no other options there. But if the team fills that hole later this offseason, trade talks involving the two shortstops could heat up.
Outfield - Mike Cameron, Jacoby Ellsbury, and J.D. Drew are the projected starters but Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, and Darnell McDonald each contributed in 2010 while Josh Reddick is another talented prospect waiting in the wings. The Sox are also reportedly interested in top free agents Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Signing either player would make for one crowded outfield. If Cameron proves to be healthy, he could interest a team looking for a short-term solution in centerfield while Kalish could be a long-term solution for a team looking to get younger.
Starting Pitching - You can never have too much starting pitching depth but the Sox currently have Tim Wakefield in the 'pen to start the season and lefty Felix Doubront, who is probably good enough right now to start on more than a few teams, projected to start 2011 in the minors. The 23 year-old could be a valuable trade chip this offseason. I doubt they trade any of their top four starters, although Clay Buchholz could probably get them Adrian Gonzalez if they chose to go in that direction. They'd move Daiskuke Matsuzaka if they could get a decent return.
Chicago Cubs
Catcher - Not that the Cubs can afford to deal starting catcher Geovany Soto, but they do have two young catchers in the upper minors who could interest teams in need of some catching help. Robinson Chirinos, who was added to the 40-man roster after the season, is a 26 year-old Venezuelan who hit .318 with 15 HR's in 77 games for Double-A Tennessee. Welington Castillo, who made his big league debut in August, hit .255 with 13 HR's in 69 games for Triple-A Iowa. The 23 year-old was a top prospect in the organization following the 2008 season but slipped after struggling in Double-A in 2009. While neither is likely ready to be thrown into a starting gig with any team, either player could be eased into that role or they could just continue to develop at Triple-A.
Cincinnati Reds
First Base - Yonder Alonso, the team's first round pick in the '08 draft, is blocked by NL MVP Joey Votto at first base. A position change to left field last season was ditched after 30 games so Alonso is likely stuck in Triple-A unless the Reds can trade him. His .290/.362/.458 line between Double-A and Triple-A last season should be enough to convince teams that he is major league ready.
Third Base - With Scott Rolen under contract for two more seasons, Juan Francisco is another top hitting prospect without a starting job unless he can move to the outfield. The 23 year-old, who hit .286 with 18 HR's and 59 RBI's in 77 games with Triple-A Louisville last season, played a total of five games in left field so that doesn't appear to be the plan. It's probably a good idea to have some depth behind the veteran Rolen, who will be 36 years old at the start of next season, but the Reds will probably listen if a team is interested.
Starting Pitching - With impressive youngsters Mike Leake and Travis Wood battling for the final rotation spot and no sense of urgency to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation, you know the Reds are in pretty good shape. With depth at multiple positions, they could put together a very good package of young players if they wanted to go after a big name on the trade market this offseason.
Cleveland Indians
Outfield - The rebuilding Indians have a few pretty good young outfield prospects that could arrive on the scene in 2011 (Ezequiel Carrera, Matt McBride, Nick Weglarz) and a 28 year-old centerfielder, Grady Sizemore, who would likely be one of the more popular trade targets if he was made available. Although he's returning from microfracture surgery on his left knee, Sizemore was an All-Star in three consecutive seasons from 2006-08 and Gold Glove winner in 2007-08. The Indians would be sure to make that case during trade negotiations but on the other side of the table, teams will be trying to get him at a discounted rate coming off of the injury.
Kansas City Royals
Second Base - Chris Getz was acquired from the White Sox prior to the 2010 season but was outplayed by Mike Aviles, who now goes into 2011 as the starting second baseman after hitting .304 with 8 HR's and 14 SB's. The 27 year-old Getz, who hit .261 with 2 SB's for the White Sox in 2009, could be an option for teams looking to find a starting second baseman.
Third Base - If not for Wilson Betemit's solid 2010 campaign, there would be nothing stopping Mike Moustakas from being the opening day third baseman for the Royals in 2011. But with the 29 year-old Betemit's stock peaking after he hit .297 with 13 HR's and 43 RBI's in 84 games, maybe the team should try and find a trade partner now when they can try and convince teams that he could put up a .280-25-90 line if given 600 AB's.
Los Angeles Angels
Catcher - Early in the offseason, Mike Napoli is penciled in to get the majority of AB's as the team's designated hitter. But with the team early favorites to land one of the top free agent outfielders, Crawford or Werth, those AB's would go to Bobby Abreu if either was signed, which would probably place Napoli on the trade market, if he's not already. Some combination of Jeff Mathis, Bobby Wilson, and rookie Hank Conger would take over catching duties in 2011.
Third Base - After a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League, Brandon Wood continues to prove that hit can hit anywhere but the big leagues. The 25 year-old is out of options and would likely already be out of chances with the Angels if Alberto Callaspo would've produced more than a .605 OPS after he was acquired in July. Instead, they'll go to spring training to compete for the starting third base job and at least one of the two will likely be elsewhere by the start of the season.
Milwaukee Brewers
Third Base - Casey McGehee has solidified the hot corner for the Brewers, keeping prospect Mat Gamel stuck in the minors, where he hit .309 with 13 HR's and 67 RBI's for Triple-A Nashville in 2010. There is a chance one of the two will move to first base when Prince Fielder departs, either as a free agent after 2011 or a trade between now and July 31st. For now, they have two capable third basemen.
Centerfield - Lorenzo Cain, Chris Dickerson, and Carlos Gomez are all candidates for the starting centerfield job. Gomez is a toolsy player who doesn't put the ball in play enough to utilize his blazing speed. Still, he's only 24 years old and the Brewers could likely get something in return for a player who was ranked the #3 prospect in the Mets' organization just three seasons ago. Another indication that Gomez could be on the trading block: Brandon Boggs was signed to a one-year deal today, adding another right-handed bat to the mix who can play all three outfield spots.
Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitching - With prospect Kyle Gibson moving quickly through the system and plenty of back-of-the-rotation starters (Eric Hacker, Jeff Manship, Glen Perkins) to hold down the fort, maybe the Twins could afford to trade away one of their starters not named Francisco Liriano. The 23 year-old Gibson, who was the team's 1st round pick in 2009, went 11-6 with a 2.92 ERA, 39 BB's and 126 K's in 152 IP across three levels (HiA, AA, AAA) during his first pro season.
Oakland A's
Third Base - Kevin Kouzmanoff, expected to make around $4M in arbitration, was already a trade/non-tender candidate before Edwin Encarnacion was claimed off waivers. Now they'll have to decide which one to keep: Kouzmanoff, 29, who is cheaper and a much more reliable defender, or Encarnacion, 27, who could cost over $6M but provides more power. Neither player hits for a high average or gets on base all that much. Maybe this aggressive A's team gets rid of both and signs Adrian Beltre?
Third Base - Casey McGehee has solidified the hot corner for the Brewers, keeping prospect Mat Gamel stuck in the minors, where he hit .309 with 13 HR's and 67 RBI's for Triple-A Nashville in 2010. There is a chance one of the two will move to first base when Prince Fielder departs, either as a free agent after 2011 or a trade between now and July 31st. For now, they have two capable third basemen.
Centerfield - Lorenzo Cain, Chris Dickerson, and Carlos Gomez are all candidates for the starting centerfield job. Gomez is a toolsy player who doesn't put the ball in play enough to utilize his blazing speed. Still, he's only 24 years old and the Brewers could likely get something in return for a player who was ranked the #3 prospect in the Mets' organization just three seasons ago. Another indication that Gomez could be on the trading block: Brandon Boggs was signed to a one-year deal today, adding another right-handed bat to the mix who can play all three outfield spots.
Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitching - With prospect Kyle Gibson moving quickly through the system and plenty of back-of-the-rotation starters (Eric Hacker, Jeff Manship, Glen Perkins) to hold down the fort, maybe the Twins could afford to trade away one of their starters not named Francisco Liriano. The 23 year-old Gibson, who was the team's 1st round pick in 2009, went 11-6 with a 2.92 ERA, 39 BB's and 126 K's in 152 IP across three levels (HiA, AA, AAA) during his first pro season.
Oakland A's
Third Base - Kevin Kouzmanoff, expected to make around $4M in arbitration, was already a trade/non-tender candidate before Edwin Encarnacion was claimed off waivers. Now they'll have to decide which one to keep: Kouzmanoff, 29, who is cheaper and a much more reliable defender, or Encarnacion, 27, who could cost over $6M but provides more power. Neither player hits for a high average or gets on base all that much. Maybe this aggressive A's team gets rid of both and signs Adrian Beltre?
Pittsburgh Pirates
Catcher - With Chris Snyder the starting catcher and Jason Jaramillo a capable backup, there's no question that Ryan Doumit is expendable. For now, the plan is for him to go to camp and get ready to spend some time behind the plate, first base, and right field. There aren't too many catchers who are capable of hitting .300 with 15 HR's in a season. The fact that Doumit has done that (.318 BA, 15 HR's in 2008) has to make him a target for teams looking for catching help.
Catcher - With Chris Snyder the starting catcher and Jason Jaramillo a capable backup, there's no question that Ryan Doumit is expendable. For now, the plan is for him to go to camp and get ready to spend some time behind the plate, first base, and right field. There aren't too many catchers who are capable of hitting .300 with 15 HR's in a season. The fact that Doumit has done that (.318 BA, 15 HR's in 2008) has to make him a target for teams looking for catching help.
San Diego Padres
Outfield - Two of the outfielders in this surplus, Tony Gwynn, Jr. and Scott Hairston, are non-tender candidates but the Padres will likely look to trade them before cutting them loose. Both have value as backups. Gwynn was one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors last season. He just can't hit. Hairston can play all three outfield spots and has shown big-time power with the Padres but he's due to make more money than the Padres can afford to pay a part-time player. Even without those two, the Padres still have Aaron Cunningham, Chris Denorfia, Luis Durango, and Cedric Hunter on the bench or Triple-A. And don't forget Kyle Blanks, who is considered an outfielder until Adrian Gonzalez leaves town. The 6'6 slugger is expected to return early next season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Tampa Bay Rays
Shortstop - Jason Bartlett is on the trading block with Reid Brignac expected to take over full-time duties once he is dealt. Plenty of teams are looking for middle infield help so this should happen sooner than later.
Starting Pitching - Despite having the most obvious position surplus on this entire list with six really good starting pitchers, GM Andrew Friedman could choose to hold on to all of them. Pitching depth is a good thing, after all. But if he has trouble rebuilding his entire bullpen on a limited budget, he'll have no choice but to see what he can get for someone like Matt Garza or James Shields.
Texas Rangers
First Base - Chris Davis has nothing left to prove in the minors but he lost the first base job in Texas, not once, but twice in 2010. First he was demoted in favor of Justin Smoak, who was later traded in the Cliff Lee deal. Given a second chance, he lost the job to Mitch Moreland, who now goes into 2011 as the team's starting first baseman with Davis now on the trade block.
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