by Jeff Moore
Power.
Like speed, and velocity, it is one of the un-teachable skills of the game of baseball. Sure, coaches can help a player un-tap the power inside of him, or develop more power out of his swing, but if it’s not there, it’s not there. Some players have “natural power” and some simply don’t.
In celebration of one of the greatest decade-long displays of power that baseball has ever seen – Albert Pujols’ career and subsequent crossing of the 400 homerun barrier last night – I wanted to look toward the future to see what prospects in the minors have the potential to ever reach the 400 homerun plateau.
Of course, power alone will not cut it. Russell Branyan is a fine example of a player with as much raw power as any hitter in the game, but also living proof that one tool is far from enough. Despite carving out a long career in the majors, he is still likely to get just halfway to the 400 mark. Heck, even Adam Dunn can hit .250 and takes a ton of walks. One tool simply does not cut it, which rules out players like the Braves’ Cody Johnson, the Mariners’ Greg Halman, and others who have shown no adjustment to better pitching, causing their power to get lost in a sea of swings and misses.
This list would have written itself this past off-season, with rookies like Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, and Pedro Alvarez spearheading a class of prospects overflowing with usable power. But, alas, their graduation to the big stage will force me to dig only slightly deeper, to uncover the short list of prospects with this rare potential.
*Note: This is not a prediction. This is about potential. Predicting that a minor league player will hit 400 homeruns can be done with no more accuracy than predicting when the world will end. Maybe the Mayans can do it, but I certainly can’t.
Mike Moustakas, 3B – Triple-A Omaha (KC)
Moustakas’ power was the main reason he was the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, but that power came into question during a rough 2009 season in which he hit just 16 home runs. For a player with Moustakas’ power, this number seemed worrisome, until it’s put in context with the fact that he played the entire season for the Royals’ Carolina League affiliate in Wilmington, who play their home games at Frawley Stadium, a park that gives up about as many home runs as Yellowstone (believe me, I’ve hit there). While the number on the stat sheet may not be impressive, Moustakas’ 16 homers last season were in fact the most of any Blue Rocks player since 1999. This year, the burly third baseman has eliminated concern faster than the baseballs now jumping off his bat with regularity, as he has hit a combined 29 homeruns between Double and Triple-A, showing off both the power that was always there, and the ability to adjust to better pitching. While he’ll likely never be a .300 hitter in the big leagues, his power will play in the majors.
Chris Carter, 1B/OF – Triple-A Sacramento (OAK)
Disregard his 0-for-19 performance in the majors earlier this year. Really, go ahead. Disregard it. It never happened. Ok, so maybe it did happen. And it’s going to happen again. This will not be the last 0-for-19 with 9 strikeouts stretch in Chris Carter’s major league career. But it’s not going to prevent him from hitting a lot of home runs. Carter appears to be locked in to becoming a 'Three True Outcome' type of hitter (walk-strikeout-homerun), and that’s fine by the A’s, although his doubles totals lead me to believe he’s slightly better-rounded than that. Regardless, the power is there and has been there in Double and Triple-A, leaving little reason to believe it won’t come with him on his next trip to Oakland.
Jesus Montero, C/DH - Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (NYY)
The Mike Piazza comparisons are unfair, but they might also be accurate. Piazza in Triple-A? .341/.405/.564, 22 2Bs, 16 HRs in 398 PA’s at age 23 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Montero in Triple-A? .285/.386/.490 29 2B’s, 16 HR’s in 455 PA’s at age 20 in the more pitcher-friendly International League. Piazza crossed the 400 homer mark late in his career, and he stayed behind the plate for most of it. Montero won’t likely be doing much catching past his mid-20’s, if he even makes it that long, ultimately decreasing his value as a player but giving him a much more likely shot to reach the upper levels of the record books.
Bryce Harper, OF - Yet to be assigned to affiliate (WAS)
Case and point on the “potential not prediction” argument I made earlier. When it comes to potential, Harper could hit 800. He has the power. But will he have the swing? A 17-year-old who has never seen a professional pitch is as likely to flame out at Double-A as he is to join the record books. As for Harper, if I had to bet my house one way or another, I’d take the latter, but not comfortably. Regardless, he has as much raw (keyword) power as any player in the minor leagues (and according to some scouts, any player in draft history), so until he shows an inability to make consistent contact, we have to assume that his power will play out in games, at least to a certain extent.
Jeff Moore is the creator of MLB Prospect Watch, your one-stop site for all the information you need about minor league prospects. If it happens on the farm, it happens here! Click here for Jeff's archive of work on this site.
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