IS BYRD THE ANSWER IN CF?
UPDATE 1/1/10 - 2:53 PM PST
For the fourth consecutive season, the Cubs have dipped into the free agent pool to fill a need in their outfield after agreeing to a three-year, $15M deal with former Phillies, Nationals, and Rangers outfielder Marlon Byrd. The 32 year-old, who set career bests with 20 HR's, 89 RBI's, and 43 2B's in 2009, will be the starting CF with Kosuke Fukudome shifting over to RF.
Of concern is Byrd's lack of offensive success prior to his arrival in Texas. After a fine rookie season for the Phillies in 2003 (.303 BA, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 28 2B, 11 SB in 135 games), Byrd failed to post an OPS over .698 over his next three seasons. He didn't post an OPS under .814 in three seasons after signing with the Rangers before the '07 season. However, his home/away OPS splits show that he was a much better hitter at the hitter-friendly confines of the Ballpark in Arlington: .916 vs .715 in 2007, .911 vs .772 in 2008, .873 vs .740 in 2009.
No one knows how that will translate to Wrigley Field but one thing for certain is that the last three outfield free agent signees have not quite lived up to expectations. Let's take a look:
2007: Alfonso Soriano was considered among the elite power hitters in the game and was signed to an 8-year, $136M deal to be the new LF for the Cubs. While he was still a very productive hitter over his first two seasons, making his 6th and 7th All-Star teams, the 33 year-old hit just .241 with 20 HR's last season and was shut down with knee pain in September. The last half of that deal could be a disaster if he cannot stay healthy and productive.
2008: The team signed Japanese star Kosuke Fukudome to a 4-year, $48M deal. While he hasn't been horrible, he is making $12M per season and has rewarded the Cubs with a .258 BA, 21 HR's, and 112 RBI's over two full seasons. He has even less value as a corner outfielder.
2009: After leading the AL in OBP (.436) and OPS (.999) with the Rangers in '08, the Cubs gave outfielder Milton Bradley a 3-year, $30M deal despite the fact that he had played in more than 100 games just three times in nine seasons, not to mention his temper getting the best of him on more than a few occasions throughout his career. Like Soriano and Fukudome, his overall numbers weren't terrible, just well below expectations. He hit .257 with 12 HR's and 40 RBI's in 124 games but once again, his volatile attitude became a distraction and he was traded to Seattle this offseason in order to save a few of the many millions they still owe him.
Despite the big numbers he put up in '09, expectation for Byrd shouldn't be too high. He'll only make $5M per season, an amount that the Cubs could probably live with even if he proves to be nothing more than a very good fourth outfielder. If he can put together a solid season (.270-15-85) and play good defense in CF, the signing should be considered a success.
Marlon Byrd - 2004 Studio Plus Photo
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UPDATE 11/19/09 6:45 PM PST
LHP John Grabow has agreed to stay with the Cubs, agreeing to a two-year deal worth at least $7M. The 31 year-old had a 3.24 ERA in 30 relief appearances with the team after coming over from the Pirates in a mid-season deal. The deal is expected to be announced later this week.
With Grabow remaining in the picture, the Cubs shipped RHP Aaron Heilman to the Diamondbacks for LHP Scott Maine (2.90 ERA in 48 relief appearances between AA and AAA)and 1B Ryne White (.266 BA, .371 OBP, 6 HR, 52 RBI in 116 games at HiA). The 24 year-old Maine is likely ticketed for Triple-A Iowa while the left-handed hitting White, 23, has a chance to start the season in Double-A Tennessee.
UPDATE 11/12/09 - 9:54 AM PST
LINEUP - It appears that GM Jim Hendry's first line of business is getting rid of outfielder Milton Bradley as he has worn out his welcome with yet another team. Once Bradley is out of the picture, the Cubs will likely look to bring in another outfielder to go with Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano. Because of Fukudome's ability to play CF or RF, the team is not limited to a corner outfielder or a center fielder. The infield is set with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee at the corners and Ryan Theriot and Jeff Baker (.810 OPS after being acquired from Colorado in July) up the middle. The team is hoping catcher Geovany Soto can rebound from a disappointing season in which he batted just .218.
ROTATION - The Cubs have a solid top of the rotation with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly but it was rookie Randy Wells who might have been the most impressive, winning 12 games and posting a 3.05 ERA in 27 starts. Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija will battle it out for the #5 spot but they could both be in the rotation with Lilly questionable for the start of the season after recently undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery.
BULLPEN - Left-hander John Grabow is reportedly close to re-signing with the club. He would team with Angel Guzman and Aaron Heilman to set up for closer Carlos Marmol. If Samardzija isn't in the rotation, he could also be a late-inning option. There is plenty of unproven talent that may or may not be ready to contribute but the Cubs might not want to take that chance. Jeff Stevens
(2.03 ERA in 42 AAA relief appearances) and John Gaub (2.25 ERA, 80 K in 60 IP between AAA/AA), both acquired from Cleveland in the Mark DeRosa deal, had dominating minor league seasons. Justin Berg (12 IP, ER) and Esmailin Caridad (19.1 IP, 3 ER) each had success in limited action with the Cubs.
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