Starting Lineup
2B Akinori Iwamura: average tools across the board but strikes out a lot for a lead off man (245 K's in two seasons) UPDATE 4/4 - will bat 8th or 9th in the lineup once B.J. Upton returns from the DL
LF Carl Crawford: ironically, the Rays had their best season in existence in a year when Crawford had his least productive (.273 BA, 8 HR, 25 SB); only played in 109 games due to injury
1B Carlos Pena: strikeouts went up (166 K's) and everything else went down but it still resulted in a productive season with 31 HR's and 102 RBI's
3B Evan Longoria: could be the best 3B in the AL despite being just 23 years old
DH Pat Burrell: if he can duplicate his '08 numbers (.367 OBP, 33 HR, 86 RBI), he'll be a bargain at 2 years and $18 million
C Dioner Navarro: finally came into his own as a ML hitter, hitting .295 and making his first all-star team
RF Gabe Gross: belted 13 HR's in 302 AB's after being acquired from Milwaukee in an early-season trade
CF Gabe Kapler: another solid veteran added to the young Rays team; should get AB's at all three OF spots UPDATE 3/22 - despite a 4-for-32 spring, he could find himself in the starting lineup quite a bit until Upton is healthy
SS Jason Bartlett: doesn't supply any power but a .286 BA and 20 SB's from the #9 spot is more than enough production UPDATE 4/4 - will leadoff against LHP's until Upton returns from the DL
Bench
C Shawn Riggans: hit 6 HR's in 135 AB's before his season ended because of a knee injury
IF Willy Aybar: good season (.253 BA, 10 HR, 33 RBI) followed by an even better postseason (.353 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI) from a guy that will get some AB's at 2B, SS, and 3B
UTL Ben Zobrist: might not have a spot on ML roster despite batting .253 with 12 HR's in 198 AB's in '08; will have to hold off Adam Kennedy UPDATE 3/24 - Ray's Index has projected the versatile Zobrist to be the starter in CF while Upton is out
OF Matt Joyce: will likely platoon with Perez; vs RHP in '08: .255 BA, 12 HR, 32 RBI in 220 AB's UPDATE 3/6 - leg injury likely hinders his chances of making the roster UPDATE 4/1 - chances to make the team improve now that Adam Kennedy has been reassigned UPDATE 4/1 - has won the final bench job
Starting Rotation
RHP James Shields: staff workhorse has pitched 215 innings in consecutive seasons UPDATE 3/4 - named the opening day starter
LHP Scott Kazmir: coming off of four straight solid seasons but needs to do better than 5 2/3 IP per game if he wants to continue to be considered the staff ace
RHP Matt Garza: 25 year-old was much better at home (7-4, 2.89 ERA) than on the road (4-6, 4.53 ERA)
RHP Andy Sonnastine: as solid as it gets from a #5 starter (13-9, 4.38 ERA, 193.1 IP, 37 BB, 124 K)
RHP Jeff Niemann: nothing more to prove after two solid AAA seasons; either he's traded, wins the #5 spot in the rotation if Price starts in AAA, or he helps the team out of the bullpen UPDATE 3/12 - making a case for the last rotation spot with a strong performance thus far (9 IP, ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K) UPDATE 4/5 - will be the team's #5 starter
Bullpen
RHP Troy Percival: health status up in the air after back surgery UPDATE 3/9 - thinks he'll be ready for opening day but has yet to face hitters this spring UPDATE 3/22 - has thrown three perfect innings this spring and said, "I'm ready now" when asked if he would be ready for opening day UPDATE 3/27 - felt fine after pitching in back-to-back games for the first time this spring
RHP Dan Wheeler: he'll likely head into spring training as the closer although he blew two saves in the postseason and had a 6.23 ERA in seven appearances
RHP Grant Balfour: hard to be more dominant than the 31 year-old in 2008 (6-2, 1.54 ERA, 58.1 IP, 28 H, 82 K)
LHP J.P. Howell: terrific regular season (6-1, 2.22 ERA, 89.1 IP, 62 H, 92 K) and solid postseason numbers (3.00 ERA, 12 IP, 4 BB, 17 K) despite 0-3 record
LHP Brian Shouse: signed on to be the second lefty out of the bullpen after finishing with a 5-1 record and 2.81 ERA in 69 games for Milwaukee in '08
RHP Joe Nelson: 34 year-old signed as a free agent after posting a 3-1 record and 2.00 ERA in 59 relief appearances for the Marlins
RHP Lance Cormier: he enters a crowded bullpen picture but a spot could free up if Percival starts the season on the DL or if someone else is traded UPDATE 3/14 - with Percival and Isringhausen yet to make their game debuts, Cormier's chances have increased; his 2.57 ERA thru 7 IP hasn't hurt either UPDATE 4/5 - Hammel trade opens up a spot on the 25-man roster for him
Disabled List
RHP Jason Isringhausen: signed to a minor league deal on 2/20; averaged 34 saves per season from 2000-07 UPDATE 3/15 - solid in his first outing of the spring UPDATE 4/1 - will start the season on the DL
RHP Chad Bradford: nice late-season trade acquisition posted a 1.42 ERA for Tampa in the regular season and a 1.13 ERA in 8 postseason appearances; out until at least mid-May with an elbow injury
OF Fernando Perez: exciting player was a big part of the Rays' postseason run; could get a majority of starts against LHP and be a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-runner UPDATE 3/5 - more likely to start the season in AAA as the Rays are grooming him to become an everyday player UPDATE 3/12 -expected to miss at least 3 months with a dislocated wrist UPDATE 3/22 - now expected to miss 4-5 months
CF BJ Upton: HR production dropped from 24 to 9, although he played the season with a sore shoulder UPDATE 3/14 - status still uncertain for opening day as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery UPDATE 3/22 - likely to open the season on the DL
Released
1B/3B Morgan Ensberg: has been a mediocre player since his all-star season in 2005 (.283 BA, 36 HR, 101 RBI) but he adds some much-needed depth at 1B and 3B UPDATED 3/30 - released
Traded
RHP Jason Hammel: could be the odd man out on a very talented and deep pitching staff UPDATE 3/2 - says he's ready to show the Rays he can be a starter UPDATE 3/16 - Rays Index explains why it appears that Hammel has the edge for the #5 spot in the rotation UPDATE 4/5 - traded to the Rockies for a minor leaguer
Reassigned to Minor League Camp
LHP Carlos Hernandez: former Astros prospect could have a shot as the #5 starter if Price starts the season in AAA; UPDATE 2/21 - Manager Joe Maddon seems to like him
RHP Winston Abreu: spent the the '08 season in Japan; struggled a bit for the Nats (5.93 ERA in 26 games) in '07 but was completely dominant during his time in AAA, posting a 1.20 ERA with only 24 hits allowed and 82 K's in 52.1 IP
2B Adam Kennedy: gives the team some depth at 2B after Iwamura and Aybar; 33 year-old hit .280 in 339 AB's in 2008 with St. Louis UPDATE 3/25 - chances of making the team improve after Ruggiano was optioned to the minors UPDATE 4/1 - reassigned to minor league camp
Optioned to AAA
RHP Mitch Talbot: 25 year-old has an outside chance at the #5 spot after going 13-9 with a 3.86 ERA in 28 AAA starts but he was blasted in three games for the Rays after a September call-up
OF Justin Ruggiano: UPDATE 3/10 - could be an option in CF if Upton is not fully recovered from shoulder surgery by opening day; he's 7-for-26 with 2 SB's this spring UPDATE 3/22 - with Upton likely to start the season on the DL, the Rays might need another CF on the roster UPDATE 3/25 - optioned to AAA although there's still a chance he makes the team if Upton is not ready to start the season
LHP David Price: could emerge as the #1 starter by the time 2009 is all said and done but there's a chance he could start the season in AAA UPDATE 3/12 - looking more and more like Price will start the season in AAA UPDATE 3/25 - optioned to AAA
Returned to the Chicago White Sox (Rule V)
RHP Derek Rodriguez: solid relief prospect will have a tough time sticking around as a rule V draft pick UPDATE 3/23 - rule V pick returned to the White Sox










14 comments:
I can tell you that Matt Joyce is going to start the season in AAA unless he has an OPS of 1000 or higher against LHP in Spring Training! There will be an All-Gabe-All-The-Day platoon in RF and FPerez will only be on the 25 man roster if BJ Upton is not ready for the beginning of the season (and if Maddon doesn't choose Ruggiano over Perez which is not likely)!
Grant Balfour is out of the BP till May!
It also looks as if David Price will start the season in AAA in order to refine his changeup --> the 5th starter spot will (as it looks right now) go to Niemann/Hammel because they are out of options!
... ohh ... and I forgot ... Ben Zobrist will definitelly be on the 25 man roster unless Kennedy plays terrific in spring training!
Otherwise: I like the idea of your site very much! Good luck!
Thanks for the feedback BurGi. Send me some links with that info, if possible. Or else I can do some further research and make changes as I find the solid evidence.
Excellent site, hope you're getting a big jump in traffic from the mlbtradrumors link.
Minor quibble: while I agree that Aki is nowhere near an ideal leadoff man, that's because he doesn't hit very well, not because he strikes out a lot. Wouldn't leadoff man be one of the spots in the lineup where you'd LEAST worry about Ks? He's not even gonna have someone on base for him very often so that he can make a "productive out".
Ari, I've never heard that argument before but it does make sense. I guess my statement should read, 'he strikes out a lot for a leadoff man', and not 'he strikes out too much to be a leadoff man'.
The more you look at the Price situation, the more you have to think he will start the year in AAA. With Niemann and Hammell out of options, I'd expect Niemann to be the #5 sp and Hammell to go to the bullpen. They've both pitched very well this spring, if neither make the team they'll be claimed on waivers.
Percival should start the year on the DL, and Isringhausen hasn't even thrown a pitch yet indicating he should start the year in AAA...which should open a spot for Cormier in the bullpen.
Rays outfielder Fernando Perez will be sidelined for at least three months after dislocating his left wrist while diving in an attempt to catch a sinking line drive in a game against the Blue Jays.
If Hammel impresses the Rays this spring, I think it more likely that he is the #5 starter and Niemann in the bullpen than the other way around. My impression is that the Rays are mulling over grooming Niemann to be a reliever, perhaps a closer, and would likely want to start that process now, while they probably see Hammel more as trade bait than as a regular on the team.
Whoever is the #5 starter is just keeping the seat warm for Price anyway, so unless there is an injury to one of the other 4 starters, or one is very ineffective, Hammel would fit the role better than Niemann who the Rays probably prefer to hang onto.
Re: Hammel vs Niemann
Your arguments make a lot of sense. My thinking is that the pitcher who has the best camp would be rewarded with a rotation spot and the other would serve in long relief. While they're both pitching very well so far, it looks like Niemann has the edge.
I'm hoping that my Padres trade for one of the two.
Niemann just pitched another 1 2/3 scoreless innings in relief today, that's 1 ER in 11 IP. It will be interesting to see which one of the two Hammel or Niemann wins the spot.
Lance Cormier (pitching well - 2.57 ERA after today) who signed a guranteed major league deal just 2 months ago via FA worth 675K should be in the pen over Isringhausen who has yet to pitch and signed a minor league deal.
Talbot was optioned today.
Percival and Iringhausen both appear as if they'll be ready for opening day, this team is going to have to make a trade or they will lose at least 1 if not 2 decent pitchers on waivers.
Kennedy was sent down today
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